Table of Contents

• 1. Chipotle (CMG) — Brief Earnings Snapshot

  • a. Demand

  • b. Profits & margins

  • c. Balance Sheet

  • d. Guidance & Valuation

• 2. Alphabet (GOOGL) — Detailed Earnings Review

  • a. Key Points

  • b. Demand

  • c. Profits & Margins

  • d. Balance Sheet

  • e. Guidance & Valuation

  • f. Call & Release

  • g. Take

• 3. Tesla (TSLA) — Detailed Earnings Review

  • a. key points

  • b. demand

  • c. Profits & Margins

  • d. Balance Sheet

  • e. Guidance & Valuation

  • f. Call & Release

  • g. Take

I was planning on publishing the full Chipotle review on Saturday. Given the underwhelming comparable store guidance and the volatile stock reaction, I will be moving that article to tomorrow. I’ll also include ServiceNow coverage in that piece. I’m not happy with the Chipotle forecast revision, but I should reserve judgement until I read everything. For now, here’s part one of that review and full, detailed reviews of Alphabet and Tesla quarters.

1. Chipotle (CMG) — Brief Earnings Snapshot

a. Demand

• Missed revenue estimates by 2.1%.

• Missed -3% comparable restaurant sales growth estimates with -4% growth.

• Missed average unit volume (AUV) estimates by 1.6%.

b. Profits & margins

• Missed EBIT estimates by 1.8%.

• Beat 27.1% restaurant-level margin estimates by 30 basis points (bps; 1 basis point = 0.01%).

• Met $0.32 GAAP EPS estimates.

c. Balance Sheet

• $844M in cash & equivalents.

• $518M in long-term investments.

• Share count fell by 2.2% Y/Y.

d. Guidance & Valuation

• Chipotle again lowered its comparable restaurant sales growth guidance from low single digits to 0%. It was low-to-mid-single digits entering 2025. Not good.

• Reiterated expectations calling for 330 new stores in 2025.

Chipotle trades for 42x forward earnings. For now, EPS is expected to rise by 8% Y/Y this year and by 18% Y/Y next year. Despite meeting expectations on EPS, I think the demand guidance and EBIT miss could lead to modest negative estimate revisions.

2. Alphabet (GOOGL) — Detailed Earnings Review

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