Table of Contents

• 1. Earnings Round-Up — Lemonade, Robinhood & Coinb …

  • a. Lemonade (LMND)

  • b. Coinbase (COIN)

  • c. Robinhood (HOOD)

• 2. Meta Platforms (META) — Earnings Review

  • a. Demand

  • b. Profits & Margins

  • c. Balance Sheet

  • d. Guidance & Valuation

  • e. Call & Release

  • f. Take

• 3. Microsoft (MSFT) – Earnings Review

  • a. Demand

  • b. Profits & Margins

  • c. Balance Sheet

  • d. Next Quarter Guidance & Valuation

  • e. Call & Release

  • f. Take

1. Earnings Round-Up — Lemonade, Robinhood & Coinbase

Meta and Microsoft commanded most of my attention tonight and those are the two full reviews in this article. Still, I know there’s a lot of interest in these three companies, so I wanted to include very brief snapshots of each report tonight. While my reviews function as complete, detailed dives into reports, these snapshots offer 30,000 ft. views.

For Lemonade, I will include more detailed coverage, quantitative data and my views on the report in Saturday’s article. I don’t follow the other two names closely, but I also plan to cover Robinhood’s call in more detail Saturday if time permits. HOOD has implications for other names that I do focus on.

a. Lemonade (LMND)

Results:

• Beat gross earned premium (GEP) guidance by 1.9%.

• Beat in force premium (IFP) guidance by 1.4%

• Beat revenue estimates by 8% & beat guidance by 9.3%.

• Beat -$56M EBITDA estimates by $7M & beat guidance by $8M.

Guidance & Valuation:

• Q4 revenue guidance met estimates.

• Q4 EBITDA guidance missed -$21M estimates by $6M.

  • Considering the historically bad hurricane that swept through the state recently, this was actually better than I expected.

• Raised annual revenue & GEP guides due to large Q3 beats.

Lemonade expects to be EBITDA positive in 2026. Wildly speculative investment. High risk/high potential reward.

Balance Sheet:

• $979M in cash & equivalents.

• No debt.

• Turned operating cash flow positive this quarter. Reiterated path to positive FCF.

• Liquidity will remain a strength following expected hurricane-related losses.

b. Coinbase (COIN)

Results:

• Missed revenue estimates by 9.6%; missed subscription revenue guidance by 1.6%.

• Beat EBITDA estimates by 2%.

• Beat GAAP EBIT estimates by 13.8%.

• Missed $0.68 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.40.

Guidance & Valuation:

• $542.5 million in subscription and support revenue.

Balance Sheet:

• $7.7B in cash & equivalents.

• $4.2B in total debt.

• Basic share count rose 5% Y/Y.

• Diluted share count rose 13% Y/Y.

c. Robinhood (HOOD)

Results:

• Missed revenue estimates by 3.5%. All buckets besides “other” missed.

• Missed EBITDA estimates by 3.1%.

• Slightly missed $0.18 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.01.

• Met net funded accounts estimate.

• Slightly beat assets under custody estimates.

• Robinhood Gold subscribers rose 65% Y/Y vs. 61% Y/Y last quarter.

Valuation:

EPS is expected to double this year and fall by 3% next year.

Balance Sheet:

• $4.6B in cash & equivalents.

• No debt.

• Diluted share count rose 1% Y/Y; basic share count fell 1.2% Y/Y.

• $39B in trailing 12-month net deposits vs. $33B Q/Q & $24B 2 quarters ago.

2. Meta Platforms (META) — Earnings Review

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