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- News of the Week (August 4 - 8, 2025)
News of the Week (August 4 - 8, 2025)
Brad Freeman
August 09, 2025
Almost everything was sent during the week. In case you missed it:
Table of Contents
1. Earnings Snapshots
a. Datadog (DDOG)
I plan to publish a full Datadog review next week.
Demand:
Beat revenue estimate by 4.5% & beat guidance by 4.8%.
Beat billings estimate by 4.6%.
Profits & Margins:
Beat EBIT estimates by 7.7% & beat EBIT guidance by 9.3%.
Beat $0.41 EPS estimates & identical guidance by $0.04 each.
Balance Sheet:
Nearly $4B in cash & equivalents.
$981M in convertible senior notes.
No traditional debt.
Share count rose by 0.5% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Raised annual revenue guidance by 2.9%, which beat estimates by 2.4%.
Q3 guidance was ahead by 3.5%.
Raised annual EBIT guidance by 8.5%, which beat estimates by 6.3%.
Q3 guidance was ahead by 11%.
Raised annual $1.69 EPS guidance by $0.13, which beat estimates by $0.11.
Q3 guidance was ahead of $0.41 estimates by $0.04.
DDOG trades for 73x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 2% this year, before resuming 23% compounding over the next two years. It also trades for 50x forward FCF. FCF is expected to grow by 7% this year before compounding at a 28% clip over the next two years. They’re in investment mode for 2025.
b. Airbnb (ABNB) – Earnings Snapshot
I also plan to publish an Airbnb review next week.
Demand:
Beat gross bookings value (GBV) estimates by 3%.
Beat revenue estimates by 2.2% and beat guidance by 3.5%.
Beat nights & experiences booked (NEB) estimates by 0.5%. NEB growth was expected to moderate from 8% Y/Y last quarter. It was a tenth of a point away from rounding up to 8%.
Profits & Margins:
Beat EBITDA estimates by 7.5%.
EBITDA margin expanded, which compares favorably to flat-to-down Y/Y EBITDA margin guidance.
Beat FCF estimates by 4.2%.
Beat $0.94 GAAP EPS estimates by $0.09.
Balance Sheet:
$11.4B in cash & equivalents.
$2B in total debt (which is current).
Diluted share count fell by 3.1% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Q3 revenue guidance was slightly better than expected. They also reiterated 34.5%+ EBITDA margin guidance for the year and called for $2B+ in Q3 EBITDA. This was at least 6.9% better than expected, although estimates just dipped from $2B to $1.88B right before the report.
ABNB trades for 27x GAAP EPS and 15x EBITDA. GAAP EPS is expected to grow by 3% this year and 12% next year. EBITDA is expected to grow by 5% this year and by 11% next year.
c. AppLovin (APP)
Demand:
APP slightly beat revenue estimates & beat guidance by 4.6%.
Profits & Margins:
App beat EBITDA estimates by 2% & beat guidance by 3.9%. Free cash flow missed estimates by about 5%. APP sold a business division recently and did not reconcile continuing operations numbers for Q2 2023 FCF. The comp is not apples-to-apples.
Balance Sheet:
$1.20B in cash & equivalents.
$3.5B in total debt.
Diluted share count fell by 1.7% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Revenue guidance was 2.3% ahead of expectations, while EBITDA guidance was 2.9% ahead of expectations.
App trades for 37x forward EPS. EPS is expected to grow by 94% this year and by 42% next year.
d. Axon (AXON) – Earnings Snapshot
Demand:
Axon beat revenue estimates by 4.5% and beat annual recurring revenue estimates by 3.6%.
Profits & Margins:
Axon beat gross margin estimates by a point, beat EBITDA estimates by 7.5% and beat $1.47 EPS estimates. This included a $75M tax benefit. Performance awards for the leadership teams are greatly impacting GAAP margins.
Balance Sheet:
$2.1B in cash & equivalents.
About $2B in notes payable.
Diluted share count rose by 6% Y/Y; basic share count rose by 3.4% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Axon raised annual revenue guidance by 1.5%, which beat estimates by 1.1%. It also raised annual EBITDA guidance by 1%, which slightly missed estimates.
e. Rocket Labs (RKLB) – Earnings Snapshot
Demand:
Rocket Labs beat revenue estimates by 6.7% & beat guidance by 7%.
Profits & Margins:
Beat 31% GAAP GPM guidance by 110 bps.
Beat 35% GPM guidance & identical estimates by 190 bps.
Missed -$55.2M GAAP EBIT guidance by $4.4M.
Beat EBITDA guidance by 4.9% & beat estimates by 11%.
Met -$0.08 EPS estimates.
Balance Sheet:
$564M in cash & equivalents.
$56M in year-to-date CapEx.
$347M in convertible senior notes.
4.2% Y/Y share dilution.
Guidance & Valuation:
Revenue guidance slightly missed estimates.
EBITDA guidance missed by 6%.
GAAP EBIT guidance missed by 4.5%.
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