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Alphabet & AMD Earnings Reviews + Spotify & Chipotle Earnings Snapshots
Brad Freeman
February 04, 2025 • Estimated Reading Time: 4 minutes
In case you missed it, our detailed PayPal Earnings Review from this afternoon.
This was a very long 16-hour work day. If there’s an extra typo or two in the reviews, I apologize. Struggling to keep my eyes open and Uber + Disney both report tomorrow morning.
1. Brief Earnings Snapshots — Chipotle and Spotify
a. Chipotle (CMG)
A full review of this report will come on Saturday or maybe early next week.
Results:
Missed revenue estimate by 0.7%.
Missed EBIT estimate by 3.3%.
Beat 24.5% restaurant-level margin estimate by 30 bps.
Met GAAP EPS estimate.
Balance Sheet:
$748M in cash & equivalents.
$868M in long-term investments.
Diluted share count fell by about 1% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
For the full year, 9% store growth and about 3% comparable sales growth guidance for 2025 leave us with about 12% revenue growth guidance for the year. This missed 13.3% growth estimates. If we instead assume “low-to-mid single-digit” growth means 4%, then it only slightly missed estimates.
Chipotle trades for 42× 2025 EPS estimates. EPS is expected to compound at a 19% clip for the next two years. Estimate revisions will likely fall a bit after this report.
Chart has not yet updated for next 12 month EPS to mean Q1-25 through Q1-26
b. Spotify (SPOT)
A full review of this report will come on Saturday.
Results:
Beat revenue estimates by 4.6% & beat guidance by 5.9%.
Beat net new monthly active user (MAU) guidance of 25 million by a robust 10 million.
Beat EBIT estimate by 1.5%. EBIT missed due to the rising stock price and therefore a higher-than-expected stock compensation charge.
Beat 31.8% GAAP GPM estimates & identical guidance by 40 bps each.
Beat premium subscriber guidance by 1%.
Balance Sheet:
€4.78B in cash & equivalents.
€1.54B in exchangeable notes.
Diluted share count rose by 6.6% Y/Y.
Basic share count rose by 3.1% Y/Y.
Guidance & Valuation:
Spotify trades for 56x 2025 earnings estimates and likely somewhere at or a little over 50x after revisions. It also trades for about 37x 2025 FCF estimates and likely a few ticks lower after revisions. EPS is currently expected to grow by 100% Y/Y this year and by 8% Y/Y next year. FCF is expected to grow by 45% Y/Y this year and by 2.5% Y/Y next year.
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